August 20, 2011

Can Tiger Woods Come Back?

Now that Tiger's knee seems to be completely healed and he's starting to play tournament golf again, the question everyone wants an answer to is: can he regain his prior form and, if not, how good, or bad, will he be?

Although there is much talk about the new young guns on tour who supposedly aren't afraid of Tiger—Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Ryo Ishikawa, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, etc., I don't see any of them having near the talent Tiger has. So on the competition front the names may be changing, but the level of competition isn't. Yes, these young players are very good, but if Tiger regains his form they will crack under Tiger's charge just like everyone before them has cracked. This isn't an issue they have to deal with right now, and it may never be if Tiger doesn't return to his previous level of play.

The more serious issues that will affect Tiger's comeback are his mental state and the quality of his swing. His mental state, primarily confidence, has been shaken and it shouldn't improve much until he starts hitting better shots and scoring better. Tiger obviously will call on his past experience and the knowledge that he has proven his ability to play better than anyone else on the planet, but as he continues to struggle, which is inevitable as he tries to get back into the game, his confidence will possibly deteriorate some more. It's tough to continue believing you're the best golfer in the world when you aren't wining tournaments! If he wins a few quick ones, his confidence will take a very large upswing and this will propel him to more wins, but this momentum will be tempered by the swing changes I discuss below.

The biggest wild card in Tiger's future is his swing. I'm not that familiar with his recent swing changes, but from what little I've seen and heard, it's apparent to me that his swing changes will have a negative effect on his play for the simple reason that his swing is getting steeper and, therefore, more manipulative. The more a golfer has to rely on manipulation, the more the golfer becomes dependent on timing. This translates to more inconsistency due to the fact that timing varies from swing to swing, even for the best golfers in the world. Also, the more a swing is dependent on timing, the more prone it will be to break down under pressure. So while he was almost always rock solid when leading near the end of a tournament, expect some kinks in the armor to be exposed and instead of holding on for the win, he'll lose leads that he would have kept in the past.

Because his new swing is more manipulative, my prediction is that Tiger will win tournaments, including majors, but he will win less frequently and won't be a dominant force like he was before. Because he won't be dominant, the competition won't be intimidated like they were and this will also have an affect on leveling the playing field. Instead of being the best, Tiger will spend the rest of his career as one of the better players on tour—in the top ten, and probably number one for short periods.

My prediction changes to a much more positive view if at some point Tiger drops his recent swing changes and shifts to a swing that is less manipulative. His former swing was OK in this regard, but if he can get to the point where his swing is even less manipulative than it was during his prime, then I believe he would become an even better player and be even more dominant than he was at his peak! As of now he is heading in the wrong direction with his golf swing and it will be interesting to see if his talent will be able to overcome a golf swing that is less consistent. He will still hit great shots, but he will also hit more bad shots, some of which I suspect will cost him dearly!

Casey Eberting

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